China promises to provide 1.1 million tons of urea

Compound Fertilizer, Monoammonium Phosphate, Potassium Chloride, Potassium Fertilizer, Potassium Sulfate

On Monday (August 14th), stimulated by news that China had promised to provide nearly 1.1 million tons of urea in India's urea import bidding, the main contract prices of urea futures surged throughout the afternoon, rising nearly 3% at one point, reaching a two-week high of 2115 yuan during the session. Afterwards, they slightly declined, and finally closed up 1.90% at 2089 yuan. The urea futures price fluctuated and fell in the morning trading today, and subsequently fell into a volatile long short game market.





picture



Source: Wenhua Finance





According to the latest news, in the latest round of urea import bidding in India, Indian Potash Fertilizer Company (IPL) received a confirmed order of 1.6 million to 1.7 million tons, with China committing to supply nearly 1.1 million tons. This news has boosted market confidence in domestic urea exports.



On August 9th, the bid was opened and a total of 3.3825 million tons of urea were received from 23 suppliers. The lowest quotation for the East Coast is $396 per ton (CFR price), while the lowest quotation for the West Coast is $399 per ton (CFR price).



Analysts say that there are currently approximately 350000 to 700000 tons of ready goods for printing labels in China, with 1.1 million tons clearly exceeding the current stock. At present, these sources of goods are distributed in various links, including manufacturers, ports, and social warehouses, and there may still be some empty orders to be supplemented. If these sources of goods can be smoothly exported and sold, it may even trigger new procurement demand, which will bring new support to the domestic market before late September. At the same time, the synergistic effect of other domestic favorable factors is expected to trigger a phased market trend.



Against this favorable backdrop, the main urea futures contracts have seen a tail up trend. Investors generally believe that tight supply may persist in the future, supporting the upward trend of urea prices. Some large investment institutions are even gradually increasing their holdings in urea futures to seek better investment opportunities.



In terms of spot goods, the urea market continues to experience a high price phenomenon today. The urea market in Shandong region is showing a basically stable trend, with mainstream factory prices around 2460-2500 yuan/ton. The reference price for first-hand traders in Linyi market is about 2520-2530 yuan/ton, while the reference price in Heze market is around 2480-2500 yuan/ton. At present, the urea factory has received a large amount of advance receipts, and the orders from the port continue to be shipped, indicating a clear sentiment of price support.



picture



Source: Feiyitong





The investment research team of Huawen Futures stated that urea surged nearly 3% in late trading, mainly due to China's commitment of nearly 1.1 million tons of supply in India's imported urea, which further boosted export confidence. In addition, the current operating rate and daily production have slightly decreased; Improving the operating rate of compound fertilizer production capacity; The upward trend of international market prices has not yet turned around; High spot basis. Overall, the current decline in urea production, short-term supply constraints, and high spot water prices are still positive factors.



However, despite the recent strong performance of urea prices, there is still some uncertainty in the market. Changes in the global agricultural market, policy adjustments, and climate factors may all have an impact on the demand and supply of urea

Compound Fertilizer, Monoammonium Phosphate, Nitrogen Fertilizer, Phosphate Fertilizer, Potassium Chloride, Potassium Fertilizer, Potassium Sulfate