Hebei Woldi Trading Co.,LTD
Compound Fertilizer, Monoammonium Phosphate, Nitrogen Fertilizer, Potassium Chloride, Potassium Fertilizer, Potassium Sulfate
Since the evening of July 25th, India has launched a new round of bidding for the import of non quantitative and small particle urea. The bidding will be opened on August 9th, and the quotation will be valid until August 18th, with the latest shipping date until September 26th. Let the low season market that urea should have experienced this year continue to maintain a relatively strong trend due to export demand.
Comparison of mainstream domestic urea factory price trends
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As of August 14th, the mainstream factory of Shandong Zhongli Granules is around 2500 yuan/ton. From the price trend chart, it can be seen that this year's urea trend is opposite to last year's trend, with the first half of the year in a fluctuating downward trend. However, since mid June, urea prices have started to bottom out and rebound, and until now, urea is still in a fluctuating upward trend. From June to July, it is more likely that domestic summer demand is lagging behind and procurement concentration is driving up urea prices. Subsequently, domestic demand was boosted by exports, and traders concentrated on sweeping and exporting to ports. The gradual recovery of port inventory led to a continuous reversal of the urea market, which was originally a low demand season, and the price center gradually shifted upwards.
Comparison of urea inventory trends in domestic ports
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From the perspective of port inventory, the recent urea port inventory has shown a significant rebound, mainly due to India's urea bidding. Traders have been sweeping large quantities of land based ports since mid to late July. Around August 10th, the urea inventory of major domestic ports has reached a level of over 300000 tons. In addition, there are still some urea sources that have not yet been shipped from factories. After the bid opening, prices are expected to improve, and urea sources continue to be shipped to ports. On August 14th, it was reported that China's supply of nearly 1.1 million yuan was being marked in the market. As soon as the news emerged, futures prices rose, and the sentiment in the spot market was quietly changing. From the number of ports and orders that have not yet been executed by urea factories, it is evident that the current supply of 1.1 million tons of urea is not sufficient. The shipping date for the printed label is September 26th, and it is more likely that some new export orders will continue to be traded in August. Even though domestic demand is in the off-season stage, the concentrated increase in export demand has to some extent compensated for the demand gap in domestic trade. The domestic supply and demand gap in August will be around 600000 to 700000 tons. If August exports are around this value, it will be easy for the domestic market to rise but difficult to fall. However, this time, the supply of Indian Standard China's goods far exceeds expectations. The main urea factories mainly issue orders from the port in the short term, and the production and sales balance of the factories makes it difficult to form a stock accumulation trend, making it easier for the market to drive up.
Compound Fertilizer, Monoammonium Phosphate, Nitrogen Fertilizer, Phosphate Fertilizer, Potassium Chloride, Potassium Fertilizer, Potassium Sulfate
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