The international urea market is weak; Ammonium phosphate stabilizes first and then softens; China's import of potassium chloride from Laos has surged; Potassium sulfate is bullish

Compound Fertilizer, Monoammonium Phosphate, Nitrogen Fertilizer, Phosphate Fertilizer, Potassium Chloride, Potassium Fertilizer, Potassium Sulfate

urea

Due to sluggish demand and seasonal issues, urea prices in most regions have fallen this week, and the industry generally believes that prices may further decline.



The Iranian manufacturer cancelled the bid and did not accept the FOB310 USD/ton price. India's sales in August have been consistently high, an increase of 600000 tons compared to last year, indicating that bidding may take place in September.



China's urea production continues to grow, reaching a record high of 30.79 million tons in the first half of 2023. This year's production is expected to exceed 60 million tons, an increase of 3 million tons compared to 2022, and exports are expected to increase. China's domestic market is currently strong, and exports may remain high in the fourth quarter.



As a major market, Brazil's market response has been relatively sluggish due to the reluctance of buyers to participate due to corn prices and short selling. This week, Egyptian producers cancelled lower quotations, but will soon have to sell the remaining tonnage from September to the sluggish European market.



This weak tone will continue until September, until more demand emerges, and prices will show a downward trend during this month. But the increase in demand from Brazil, India, and Europe in the fourth quarter should prevent the decline.



International price of small particle urea (in bulk) (unit: USD/ton)



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International Price of Large Granular Urea (Unit: USD/ton)



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ammonium sulfate

The tight supply has led to a significant increase in the standard level FOB prices in Northwestern Europe, but with demand still sluggish, the impact on particle prices is limited. Buyers and sellers usually set the price of standard ammonium sulfate between 180-190 euros/ton (FOB 195-206 dollars/ton), an increase of about 20 dollars/ton compared to last week, and the trading volume is relatively small within this range. A series of maintenance plans will start from September to October, and supply will begin to decrease. A large factory in Benelux has already reduced production and will further reduce production from September to October, while another factory plans to lower its operating rate by 20 percentage points in October from 70% in September. The overall stability of particle trade this week has been almost unchanged, with prices showing between 250-320 euros per ton FOB based on grade and destination. This week, a trader provided 280 euros/ton of FCA Ghent extruded ammonium sulfate from China to several importers, but there were no transaction reports.



According to the latest quotation and indications, the price of standard ammonium sulfate in China has slightly dropped to $150-160 per ton FOB this week. Due to the continued weak demand for squeezed particles, prices in the north are at a relatively low level. A trader provided Sri Lanka with 2000 tons of standard ammonium sulfate for shipment in September at a price of $195 per ton. Another trader provided Pakistan with 3000 tons of standard ammonium sulfate FOB at $160 per ton for shipment in September. The price of MMA grade ammonium sulfate is shown to be $135-140 per ton FOB this week. According to the latest market signs, the prices of extruded particle grade and caprolactam grade ammonium sulfate have stabilized at $175- $185 per ton FOB China this week. But the FOB price of extruded ammonium sulfate particles this week is generally lower than $150/ton.

Ammonium phosphate

Indian prices have slightly declined, and trading activity has weakened. Earlier this week, there was news of importing Russian diammonium at a CIF price of $550 per ton. Last week, an Indian supplier sold 30000 tons of Russian diammonium at a low price of $550 per ton. Russian goods may be shipped in the second half of September, along with NPK, to the west coast of India. The import volume of ammonium bicarbonate in August was 487000 tons, with an estimated 340000 tons in September and 235000 tons in October. So far this year, the total import volume of diammonium phosphate in India has reached about 5.24 million tons. RCF India has issued a tender to purchase two 20000 ton shipments of monoammonium phosphate 10-50 or diammonium phosphate 15.5-44. The bidding deadline will be September 4th. The first batch of goods will be shipped in October, and the second batch will be shipped in November. RCF requires a quotation validity period of 15 days. Earlier this month, RCF purchased 20000 tons of monoammonium phosphate 10-50 goods for approximately $507 per ton of CFR based on its August 10th tender, and shipped them in October.



The Bangladeshi authorities have approved bids from the private sector to acquire ammonium chloride and heavy calcium, but the final price level is still unclear. After a meeting of the Ministry of Agriculture on August 30th, imports of 310000 tons of ammonium chloride and 155000 tons of heavy calcium may have been confirmed. In some cases, the price may not exceed $680 per ton of CFR. Initially, the prices of diammonium and heavy calcium were $649-701 per ton of CFR and $569-697 per ton of CFR, respectively. The Ministry of Commerce stated that it requested suppliers to provide the lowest quotation for both products, but encountered opposition from the suppliers. But the local trading company has agreed to reduce the price to below $690 per ton CIF. Due to the trading company's belief that their final price needs to be kept confidential, they have not received official confirmation. A participant stated that the letter of credit must be opened before September 7th.



The price of diammonium in China remains stable at $560-575 per ton. The Bangladeshi authorities have confirmed that in the private sector bidding for ammonium chloride, the winning price for approximately 310000 tons of ammonium chloride is $649-680 per ton landed. After deducting costs and profit margins, the net profit is $560-575 per ton. The freight index for a 40000 ton cargo ship from China to Bangladesh ranges from $23 to $25 per ton. Prior to the bidding in Bangladesh, the majority of Chinese manufacturers' quotations were shown as USD 575 per ton FOB. At least one batch of goods was sold at an FOB price of $560 per ton, while another shipment was reported to be sold at an FOB price of $565 per ton. On August 31st, we heard a quote of $565 per ton FOB in a bidding process in Central America for shipment in September. Earlier this week, a manufacturer purchased ammonium chloride in small quantities from other manufacturers at an FOB price of $560 per ton, which was shipped in September and may be shipped to Bangladesh.



Two private importers in Pakistan purchased 30000 tons of Saudi diammonium at a high price of $550 per ton of CFR.

The DAP price in Thailand is approximately $590 per ton CIF. 8800 tons of Chinese DAP cargo will arrive in KoSichang this week. Due to reduced rainfall in some parts of Thailand, fertilizer demand has slowed down this week, but sellers still expect domestic sales to remain stable until mid September.



Due to Vietnam's seasonal off-season, there have been no diammonium import transactions this week, and domestic demand may emerge in October, preparing for the second major season, which usually starts in November. In terms of exports, the price of Diammonium Phosphate 16-45 in Vietnam this week was 550 US dollars per ton, with a bag of 50 kilograms.



An importer in the Philippines purchased 6000 tons of ammonium chloride in the market and shipped it in September, but did not receive a quotation.



Japan's imports of ammonium bicarbonate in July decreased by 18% year-on-year to 36400 tons. Morocco's delivery volume was 19000 tons, lower than 26500 tons in the same period last year. The import volume from China is basically stable at around 17400 tons. Due to a decrease in imports from China and Morocco, the import volume from January to July decreased by 53% year-on-year to 119200 tons. The import volume from these two countries decreased by 42% and 64% year-on-year, respectively, to 84800 tons and 34000 tons.



The Brazilian monoammonium west of Suez remains at $530-535 per ton CFR, and trading volume remains low. Most manufacturers, especially Russian suppliers, no longer supply the source of goods. Futures prices have already declined, with prices in September and October being $520-540/ton and $500-530/ton, respectively, compared to last week's futures price of $520-540/ton. The price of diammonium/monoammonium in Argentina remains stable at $550- $555 per ton cfr. The prices of American barges are mixed, with Nora Port barge prices in September under pressure to $520-525/ton FOB, with the middle price dropping by $12.50/short ton compared to last week; Monoammonium rose to $630 per ton FOB. Central American importer Incofe held a series of procurement bids this week, including one for a combination of goods arriving at Atlantic ports on August 28th and another for a combination of goods arriving at Pacific ports on August 31st. According to reports, the company purchased approximately 4000 tons of diammonium for Atlantic ports and may have purchased 7000 tons of diammonium for Pacific ports at a price of $570 per ton. Mexico's phosphate production slightly increased in July, with diammonium production rising to 46000 tons and monoammonium production rising to 12000 tons. The production of diammonium in June was 46000 tons. The total production of diammonium/monoammonium from January to July was 312000 tons.



Benelux ammonium is basically stable at around $600/ton; The level of diammonium in Germany is roughly between 560-565 euros per ton of bulk FCA; The price of diammonium in France is approximately 565 euros per ton of bulk FCA; The pricing of Italian diammonium in China is 550 euros/ton; Romania's price range for bagged ammonium phosphate in Constantza is 640-655 US dollars per ton; The Agropolychim factory in Bulgaria has a temporary plan for a period of one month from the second half of October to November 20th

Benelux ammonium is basically stable at around $600/ton; The level of diammonium in Germany is roughly between 560-565 euros per ton of bulk FCA; The price of diammonium in France is approximately 565 euros per ton of bulk FCA; The pricing of Italian diammonium in China is 550 euros/ton; Romania's price range for bagged ammonium phosphate in Constantza is 640-655 US dollars per ton; The Agropolychim factory in Bulgaria is scheduled to undergo a one month maintenance period from the second half of October to November 20th.



The FOB price of Russian diammonium in the Baltic Sea is approximately $500 per ton. According to the bidding, the product may be loaded into Central America next month. Another manufacturer has confirmed that they will sell 30000 tons of Russian diammonium and NPKs to India, which may be shipped in the second half of next month. This transaction may lower the offshore price of the Baltic Sea to a low of $510 per ton. Starting from September 1st, Russia will impose a 7% tariff on some fertilizer exports, which will continue until the end of next year. The minimum tax amount levied on phosphate fertilizer will be 2100 rupees (22 US dollars) per ton. All finished fertilizers, except for water-soluble diammonium and monoammonium, may be subject to tariffs.



Moroccan diammonium was not sold this week. OCP sold less than 5000 tons of diammonium to Western Europe from August to September, with a FOB price of $565-600 per ton in Morocco. Saudi Arabia's Ma'aden has sold 30000 tons of diammonium to Pakistan, which will be shipped next month at an FOB price of around 540 US dollars per ton. According to its sales tender on August 28th, Egypt's NCIC sold diammonium at a price of $580-590 per ton, with an increase of $10 per ton based on indications from last week. The company provided up to 30000 tons of diammonium in its bids at the end of September or early October. The sales price is displayed as 580-590 USD/ton FOB. NCIC stated in its bid on August 2nd that the FOB price of its ammonium bicarbonate is $515 per ton. Ethiopia (EABC) is expected to officially tender its demand for 1024400 tons of NPSB, 332300 tons of NPS, and 980000 tons of urea on September 8th. The price of diammonium goods in East Africa at the end of September and October was higher than $550/ton cfr. The price of diammonium in Kenya has decreased by 300-400 Kenyan shillings per 50 kg bag, with a delivery price of approximately 4300 Kenyan shillings per bag at a warehouse in Mombasa.

The winning bid from Bangladesh and the procurement from Pakistan have alleviated the pressure on most importers east of the Suez Canal. The limited supply in September and exports in October will support the price of diammonium in the short term. But the trend is shifting back towards buyers, with the main markets India and Brazil receiving nearly record levels of phosphate. This week, US import transactions have pushed down market prices. The European market is still at the high end.



International Monoammonium Phosphate Price (Unit: USD/ton)



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International price of diammonium phosphate (unit: USD/ton)



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Heavy superphosphate

Moroccan OCP has sold 10000 tons of heavy calcium to Western Europe at a FOB price of $405-425 per ton, which will be shipped next month.



Egypt's NCIC recently sold heavy calcium at an FOB price of $450 per ton in most transactions. If confirmed, then this batch of goods is likely to be shipped to Bangladesh.



The Brazilian TSP is roughly between $420 to $430 per ton of CFR.



International price of heavy calcium (in USD/ton)



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potash fertilizer

Due to the tight supply in China, the price of granular potassium sulfate in East Asia is still rising. The recent surge in potassium chloride prices has led to a bullish sentiment in the global potassium sulfate market. The price of potassium sulfate in Europe is basically stable, while the quotation for potassium sulfate in Egypt in the fourth quarter is 80-90 US dollars/ton higher than in July. Due to strong demand from China, Laos is facing tight supply of potassium chloride to Southeast Asia. The latest data from GTT shows that from January to July, China's imports from Laos increased by 145% year-on-year. This will help support prices in the region.



There is very little trading in the potassium chloride market. Brazil is slowing down its procurement speed, and buyers are waiting for further clarification of prices in the fourth quarter before making purchases. However, most suppliers have a strong willingness to stand up and are unwilling to significantly lower their prices, and prices in Europe are relatively stable.



Due to tight supply in the fourth quarter, low trade may continue. European demand will still rebound, which will support current prices. Brazil's demand will rebound in the fourth quarter. In Southeast Asia, the rise in rice and palm oil prices will help improve local purchasing capacity and boost demand.

Compound fertilizer

Recently, the international compound fertilizer market has remained stable and relatively strong, with prices stabilizing in some regions and rising in some regions. Among them, the prices of nitrogen, phosphorus, and potassium in Spain and Southeast Asia have slightly increased, while India's 20-20-0+13S shipment volume has increased.



There is significant news in the West African market that Mali's state-owned cotton producer CMDT has released an annual fertilizer tender, seeking 113000 tons of 14-18-18+5S+1B+2.5CaO and 55000 tons of 17-17-17, as well as 89000 tons of urea. This bidding will be closed on October 10th.



In India, with active trading, NFL sells 30000 tons of 12-32-16 Russian sources at a price of $470 per ton of CFR



In the third quarter, the price of phosphoric acid in Western Europe decreased to $1000- $1077 per ton, compared to $1280- $1364 per ton in the previous quarter.



Norwegian Yara announced this week that its September synthetic ammonia contract with US fertilizer producer Mosaic was priced at $390 per ton of CFR, an increase of $95 per ton from August.



It is expected that compound fertilizer prices will continue to rise in most markets in the future. Suppliers will continue to push up prices in the fourth quarter, but they may also face significant upward resistance, especially with limited market demand in some regions in the coming months.