The main international market demand for diammonium phosphate still exists, and the short-term high prices are mainly strong

Compound Fertilizer, Monoammonium Phosphate, Nitrogen Fertilizer, Phosphate Fertilizer, Potassium Chloride, Potassium Fertilizer, Potassium Sulfate

Since 2023, the international market for diammonium phosphate has been continuously declining, with a downward trend continuing until late July. The FOB price of diammonium phosphate exports from China at the beginning of the year was $688/ton FOB China, and in mid July, the lowest price was $420/ton FOB China, with a decrease of 34.95%; Starting from late July, the international market bottomed out and rebounded, with the main demand country, India's CIF price, rising by approximately 24.14% within half a month.



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From the above trend chart, it can be seen that since 2023, the international price of diammonium phosphate has first declined and then increased. Within half a month, the CIF price in India has increased by about $100/ton to $540/ton CFR, an increase of about 24.14%. Overall, the reasons for the price decline in the first half of the year are as follows: the impact of public health events in 2023 has ended, international production capacity has gradually recovered, supply side performance has been loose, the global economy has remained sluggish, some importing countries have insufficient financial reserves, import enthusiasm has decreased, and the demand side has continued to be weak. But since July, there have been continuous positive stimuli in the international market. Firstly, due to the rise in natural gas prices in Europe, international urea prices have rapidly risen. After July 20th, India banned rice exports other than steamed rice and Indian fragrant rice. Subsequently, the United Arab Emirates and Russia also introduced export restrictions on rice, causing international rice prices to rise significantly to a new high in 12 years; In addition, with the follow-up of domestic autumn market demand in China, there has been a decrease in international market quotations, a reduction in international supply, and the approaching fertilizer season. With the support of demand, international quotations have continued to rise and become solid, leading to a jump in international prices.



Comparison of production, sales, and inventory data of diammonium phosphate in India from January to June 2022 to 2023



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From the above table, it can be seen that from January to June 2023, the total inventory, import volume, and production of India, the main importing country of diammonium, showed an upward trend compared to the same period in 2022, while consumption showed a narrow decline trend. Among them, production had little change compared to the same period in 2022, with an increase of only 4.44%, and consumption decreased by about 8.2% compared to the same period in 2022, with narrow fluctuations being the main trend. Therefore, it is expected that the import volume of diammonium phosphate from India in 2023 may not differ significantly from the same period in previous years. As of the end of June, the import volume of diammonium phosphate from India was 3.59 million tons, while the import volumes of diammonium phosphate from India in 2021 and 2022 were about 4.68 million tons and 6.85 million tons respectively. Recently, Indian importers have been bidding intensively, and India still has some rigid demand for diammonium phosphate in the later stage.



In summary, there is still import demand from India, the main international importer of diammonium phosphate, and Pakistan has recently entered the market for procurement. Due to increased rainfall in Thailand, import demand has also rebounded, but China's main supply country's domestic autumn demand has started, and the available export sources are limited. In the short term, the international market prices are mainly high and firm.