Hebei Woldi Trading Co.,LTD
Compound Fertilizer, Monoammonium Phosphate, Potassium Chloride, Potassium Fertilizer, Potassium Sulfate
Recently, the urea market has been constantly fluctuating, and the market trend has been more rapidly rising and falling under the guidance of news, with the most obvious reaction being the Indian mark. The driving force of the printing label message not only directly affects the current market price, but also penetrates into the domestic supply and demand level in the later stage. As of August 15th, the market price in Linyi, Shandong was at 2550 yuan/ton. After experiencing a wave like trend, the urea market gradually rose back to its high level in the past half of the month, and the maximum fluctuation range in the past half of the month was around 200 yuan/ton. The impact of emotions determines that the fluctuation range of urea has increased, and the market has to keep up with the atmosphere fluctuations. How does the news affect the market?
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With the increasing number of market news games, the weight of emotions in the market influence is increasing, and the most obvious force lies in the judgment of emotions on the future market of the industry. When the positive news gradually ferments, emotions tend to hold an optimistic attitude towards the future market, while the internal response of supply and demand will weaken. The transmission of printed messages is the most intuitive manifestation.
The impact of marking:
India is an important exporter of urea in China, accounting for about 50% of the annual domestic export volume. According to export data for 2022, the total export volume was around 2.83 million tons, with India still ranking first, with an export volume of 1.2399 million tons, accounting for 43.80% of the total export volume. There are two methods of procurement in India: global bidding procurement and long-term contract procurement. Among them, global bidding and procurement are the most closely watched labels for us. The impact of bidding runs through August to September because it spreads from market rumors to the opening of bids in India, to market news, and ultimately to the deadline for shipping. The entire process will be accompanied by continuous transmission of news, and for the current domestic off-season market, the appearance of the logo has been classified as a positive in the impression of the industry, so the market's response will follow the changes in the logo news.
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The specific purpose of this printing bid is reflected in its price. India's IPL urea import bidding has received a total of 23 suppliers, totaling 3.3825 million tons. The lowest quotation for the East Coast is CFR396 USD/ton, while the lowest quotation for the West Coast is CFR399 USD/ton. The landing of prices can directly affect the size of arbitrage space at home and abroad, and there is export space for the current printing price to match the domestic factory price. However, before the price landing, the expectations of the industry for this printing price were too high, with most speculations reaching $400/ton FOB. Therefore, when the boots landed, the price gradually returned to a rational level, and the industry's inflation momentum decreased. The expected value for the future market weakened, and market sentiment fluctuated, At this time, urea prices also experienced a small trough and decline cycle. The second aspect is reflected in the quantity. Similar to the price, people tend to maintain a good attitude before the news hits the ground. The most common rumored news among industry insiders is that China's supply may reach 1.1 million tons, which led to a surge in futures prices yesterday. The most intuitive feedback on the number of printed labels is domestic supply and demand. For the current high daily production domestic supply, the increase in the number of printed labels undoubtedly puts pressure on the supply side of current manufacturers
Compound Fertilizer, Monoammonium Phosphate, Nitrogen Fertilizer, Phosphate Fertilizer, Potassium Chloride, Potassium Fertilizer, Potassium Sulfate
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