How much does urea cost today? I don't know, I dare not look, it's rising again anyway! Potash fertilizer analysts, who had originally watched the excitement, must now put their energy back and study the next trend of
Potassium Chloride, because the crazy urea is forcing Potassium chloride people to make a choice between "routine" and "accident".
The so-called 'conventional' refers to the expectation of oversupply. The output of Potassium chloride decreased in the first half of the year, but if it develops normally, the annual output should be at least higher than the low value of 6.5 million tons in recent years; In the first half of the year, the import volume of Potassium chloride was 5.22 million tons, the second highest value in the same period in history, and the export volume was about 140000 tons; At the end of last year, the inventory of Potassium chloride was about 4.23 million tons. To sum up, by the end of the first half of the year, the total supply of Potassium chloride can be determined to be at least 15.8 million tons, while the annual consumption of Potassium chloride ranges from 14 million to 16 million tons.
Considering the safety of fertilizer use in spring and the carrying forward inventory at the end of each year, the author gives an important reference factor for the price trend of Potassium chloride in the second half of the year: if the monthly import volume continues to be much higher than 500000 tons, then the pressure of Potassium chloride surplus is great, and the price may continue to decline; If the monthly import volume is significantly lower than 500000 tons in a row, the downward trend of Potassium chloride may change.
In the first half of the year, considering the market situation, cost, and import volume, and the newly signed contracts in the second half of the year, combined with the situation in Russia and Laos, and considering the same or even greater potential threat of oversupply pressure in the international market, can this import volume be much smaller? How low will the Potassium chloride contract be signed in 2024 after 307 dollars? So, it's normal to be bearish.
The so-called "accident" refers to a possible major accident leading to a sustained rebound. In case of actively reducing import volume due to concerns about surplus, or passively reducing import volume due to reasons such as international price rebound or forced interruption of trade logistics; If there is a significant reduction in international and domestic production due to force majeure... demand cannot be expected to be too high, but supply is indeed not 100% secure. Although we would rather see Potassium chloride fall again than feel the unexpected power, the world is unpredictable. Whether the surplus grey rhinoceros arrived on schedule or the out of stock black swans didn't make an appointment is really a problem.
In addition, the comparative relationship between risk and return is quietly changing. Previously, when looking down from 3000 to 5000 yuan, there was a pitch black abyss below. Now, when looking down from 2300 to 2400 yuan, at most, there is only a big pit below. Therefore, as the price of Potassium chloride continues to fall, the conditions for counterattack have gradually been met. Not to mention that everything is ready, but there may be shocks when Dongfeng comes. The optimist has already looked up, as if seeing a vast expanse of sea and sky.
The recent soaring price of urea is a gust of east wind, which stimulates the nerves of Potassium chloride people, and makes the originally common bears wake up from the gaze of the abyss and start to worry about "just in case". The key is that the east wind is still like a typhoon, feeling like it's forcing people to make decisions. But in fact, the fundamental aspects have not yet changed. How will the future unfold
Compound Fertilizer, Monoammonium Phosphate, Nitrogen Fertilizer, Phosphate Fertilizer, Potassium Chloride, Potassium Fertilizer, Potassium Sulfate
Hebei Woldi Trading Co.,LTD
